WHAT WE OFFER
Smith's Conference series provide unique forums for investors and issuers to discuss matters of mutual interest. They include, Smith's Affordable Housing Finance Conference, High Yield Municipal Bond Conference, State and Local Government Finance Conference, and Community-Based Healthcare Conference.
Smith's has become a bellwether research company, often predicting significant trends and spotlighting controversial subjects sometimes months before they come to light elsewhere. SMITH’s provides independent research and third-party analysis for institutional investors.
SMITH’s Grading scale provides a comprehensive and unified credit comparison that is consistently applied for all securities — from supranational organizations and sovereign risk gradings to sub-sovereign municipal entities and corporate credit analytics. It’s a principled and proven approach to credit analysis expressed on Smith’s universal scale.
Smith's Research & Gradings has the news and information you need to know as you continue your search for value in the municipal markets. Smith's is the premier source of independent credit evaluation within the municipal credit market.
Smith's is published every other week
U.S. In-Migration: Shifts and Their Consequences
The United Van Lines report partially overlaps with U.S. Census Bureau data in noting that the states with the highest levels of population growth include the Mountain West states of Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and Idaho as well as Texas, North Dakota, Florida and South Carolina. A major difference in the data between U.S. Van Lines data and that of the U.S. Census Bureau is that the latter includes other factors such as birth rates and migration from other states and foreign countries. While a lot of people are leaving New York, New Jersey and California, foreign and other state migration as well as birth rates maintain population levels relatively constant.
The United Van Lines report also partially matches up with U.S. Census data on those states with the lowest levels of population growth. Illinois and Connecticut match up with the United Van Lines data. Most notable of U.S. Census Bureau figures was the population decline of Puerto Rico, which went from 3,725,789 in 2010 to an estimated 3,337,177 in 2017, a 10.43% decline, reflecting a protracted multi-year recession, lack of opportunities on the island, better job opportunities elsewhere, and damage from the 2017 hurricane season.
Owning Your Data in a Digital Age
As part of his investigation into potential Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential contest, Special Counsel Robert Mueller in April charged 13 Russian nationals and three organizations in an indictment for conducting a sophisticated plot to foment distrust of the American government and tilt the election.
In an interview with NBC, Mr. Putin subsequently said that Russia would "never" extradite its citizens and rebuffed the notion of a link to the Kremlin. How the Mueller probe resulted in targeting 13 Russian billionaires is beyond the scope of this article.
What is important is the lesson to be learned from the indictment: Data can be manipulated in the digital domain.
Data was the Achilles heel of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The Hillary campaign rested squarely upon the use of data to turnout the vote for the Presidential election. After all, the DNC had used a sophisticated social media program (i.e. digital data) to turn the tables on Mitt Romney, who was up by 30 points in the polls at the beginning of the summer, and swing the election in favor of the reelection of President Obama.
Affordability Crisis Crushing California Credit Quality
It has been reported that outward migration from the Bay Area in California is the highest in the country. Many are moving out of the San Francisco Bay Area, seeking more affordable cities. But, before considering packing up and moving, call your local U-Haul. Keep in mind, it will cost you to move out of the Bay Area — almost as much as it will to stay. So many people are leaving the Bay Area that there are not enough rental trucks to go around, causing rental truck rates to peak.
According to U-Haul's online rates, it costs $132 to rent a 26-foot U-Haul truck from Phoenix, AZ to San Jose, CA but it costs $1,301 to rent one from San Jose to Phoenix. Only have a studio apartment? A 10-foot U-Haul from San Jose to Phoenix will cost you $618.
Why? Because there are simply no trucks in the Bay Area.
A study published by University of Michigan professor Mark J. Perry, showed that this was simply a supply and demand issue, the SF Gate reports.
CBS News reported that a San Jose U-Haul business is having trouble getting their rental vans back "because so many are on a one-way ticket out of town."
Taxable or Tax Exempt Debt ? That is the Question
The fundamentals are good," Chris Moriarty, Managing Director at Stifel said. "But we're in a brave new world when it comes to financing multifamily housing."
Corporate rates have gone down, making tax credits less bountiful. The value of tax exempt debt is worth less to corporations that are buying tax exempt debt for investment. There have been consistently lower rates the last few years. There has been spread compressions. Now, the market wants interest rates to go up so that that spread compression widens out. "I'm not sure that the benefit of tax exemption is going to outweigh increasing interest rates for projects," he said
According to the E&Y study over the last 25 years, there has been a less than one percent foreclosure rate on low income housing tax credit properties.
"Twenty-five years. That's just a tremendous track record, so you'd think that would result in lower interest rates, but it hasn't. But we have made progress," Mr. Moriarty exclaimed.
A LITTLE ABOUT US
SMITH’s Research & Gradings is a financial credit grading company that conducts research and creates unique credit reports using its own proprietary grading system.
SMITH’s Research & Gradings provides research and disseminates credit gradings on securities sold both on a new issue basis as well as in the secondary markets.
SMITH’s Research & Gradings mission is to provide real-time intelligence that provides greater accuracy and predictability to decision-makers.
SMITH’s Research & Gradings written manifesto stated its raison d’être was to provide independent, principles-based credit analytics.
Over the past 24 years, SMITH’s Research & Gradings has constantly improved and enhanced its credit analytics to better serve investors.
CONNECT AND CONTACT
Smith's Research & Gradings, has become a bellwether research company, often predicting significant trends and spotlighting controversial subjects sometimes months before they come to light elsewhere. Smith’s provides independent research and third-party analysis for institutional investors. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets.
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“Smith's is at the central nerve center of the municipal bond community. Terry Smith is the most visible proponent of municipal research in the industry. Terry has done so much for so many in the business and has had a great impact on the profession.”
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“Smith's Conference series provide unique forums for investors and issuers to discuss matters of mutual interest”
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Smith's Research & Gradings
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