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Smith's Research & Gradings
Volume: 
XXVIII
Issue: 
10
Author: 
Dan Aschenbach, AGVP Advisory
June 22, 2020

Smith's Research & Gradings

Clean Energy Needs Reliability Requirement

Clean energy needs to include reliability requirement as new technology advances

Transformation of the energy mix used in electricity generation globally has been focused on development of renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar, but the major stumbling block has remained reliability. Grid reliability means that electricity will be available when needed. For example, solar generation facilities produce electricity only 20% of the day and wind has a higher capacity capability but is intermittent. Without grid reliability, electricity deliverability, public safety and economic growth are jeopardized.


Intermittency of generation and the unavailability of electricity during much of the day using only these power resources continues to be misunderstood. Many policymakers, without understanding the reliability requirement, hear the desire of citizens to have clean energy, and are advocating 100% renewable energy. But it is not possible for policymakers to guarantee certainty of reliability and they fail to explain the issues involved.


There is no question that the shift to renewable resources is a positive development, as decarbonization of the fuel mix using renewable sources of energy is essential to slow climate change. Another benefit is the reduction of water usage by the major traditional fuels if they are fully displaced. To address the intermittency concerns, numerous industry efforts are taking place, such as development of energy storage scalable enough to store energy for parts of the day when wind and solar facilities are not operating. As an example, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) approved a purchased power contract in 2019 for 400MW of solar capacity paired with battery storage at the Eland Solar and Storage Center. This is expected to reduce natural gas use by LADWP, contributing to the lowering of carbon exposure.


While there is progress being made on such facilities, much more is needed.

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Will Infrastructure Promises Meet Expectations

Targeted Infrastructure programs will be one of the featured revitalization tools used for stimulating growth in the US economy post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many observers have anticipated massive large-scale infrastructure programs, but that may not be viable at this time, given the financial capabilities of many state and local governments.

Negative Event Risk (-1)

Here Comes the Sun

Smith's is issuing an Event Risk for Solar Flares (+1) The Solar Cycle 25 reached its lowest level in 2020 and it has started climbing higher in 2021. Forecasts predict the Solar 25 Cycle will peak in 2025.

Yankee Stadium Bonds Baa1/NR/BBB+

Fitch Ratings assigned a 'BBB+' rating to the New York City Industrial Development Agency's (NYC IDA) $923 million PILOT Revenue Refunding Bonds,Series 2020, Yankee Stadium Project. Fitch has also affirmed the 'BBB+' rating on the Series 2006 and 2009 bonds, as well as the NYCIDA's Series 2006 and 2009 Rental Revenue Bonds, issued on behalf of Yankee Stadium LLC (StadCo). The Rating Outlook is Stable. The transaction will refund $863 million Series 2006 and 2009 bonds, generating more than $200 million in present value savings.

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