Quick Search Tags
No items found.
The Global Economic Doctor
Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.

The Global Economic Doctor

Jobs numbers come in hot!

Jobs numbers come in hot!

The U.S. jobs report for March came in with employers adding303,000 new positions and bringing unemployment down to 3.8% to 3.9%. Although average wage gains slowed to 4.1% from 4.3%, they did not collapse. The bottom-line takeaway is that the U.S. job market remains strong and continues to defy expectations. To underscore, the demand for workers is not outstripping supply. The combination of a steady and low level of unemployment, relatively strong real GDP growth, and moderating inflation (despite high interest rates) may drive markets higher.  

The robust nature of employment is likely to mean that the Fed is less inclined to raise rates in June, with September looking more likely. Considering the strength of the U.S. labor market and the geopolitical sensitivity of oil prices (which are rising due to concerns over the Middle East), inflation is likely to remain sticky. Sugar prices are worth watching. Prices for this key commodity could be ready for a surge due to lower output in the world’s two largest producers, Brazil and India (largely due to inadequate rainfall).  Brazilian supply for global markets is also pressured by the oil price rally, which has more sugar producers shifting their product to the domestic ethanol market. Americans use sugar for much of their processed food. This may add to other pressures in keeping the price of food higher for longer. It also contributes to the growing possibility that the Fed may make only one or two rate cuts in 2024, below earlier expectations of three to five.

— Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.

Take notice

Stay on top of the latest global news that can impact your investment strategy.

People & Places: Ginny Housum, UMB Bank Honored at Smith's High Yield Conference

Ginny Housum, Senior Vice President, municipal bond workout specialist at UMB Bank in Minneapolis accepted Smith's High Yield Lifetime Achievement Award at Smith's High Yield Municipal Bond Conference.

Beirut’s Agony: Ports, Food, and China

On August 4th the port of Beirut was the scene of a horrific explosion, which killed more than 150 people, injured 6,000 and left some 300,000 homeless. The damages are estimated to be in excess of $15 billion. The city’s hospitals, already struggling due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were damaged by the blast and swamped with injured. On top of already raging economic and political crises, the explosion now raises the question of food security. Prior to the explosion, 80 percent of Lebanon’s imports passed through Beirut’s port. Without a functioning port in Beirut, the country now relies on a handful of secondary ports, chief among them being Tripoli in the north, to import food and to export its products.

Pandemic Event Risk: National Emergency Extended

The National Emergency has been extended according to a letter from President Joe Biden to The Congress of the United States.

Subscribe Today to unlock insights that could impact you tomorrow!

With your monthly or yearly Subscription you will unlock online articles and have the ability to download the full PDF files for the publication.
$79.95 / Per Month
$850 / Year (Save 30%)
* Discounted Rates for Issuers and Governmental Entities

Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.

$79.50 / Per Month
$850 / Year (Save 30%)
* Discounted Rates for Issuers and Governmental Entities

Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.