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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).
The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.
Can Artificial intelligence deliver for municipal bond analysts? The answer is a resounding yes!
Terence M. Smith, CEO, Smith's Research & Gradings has agreed to join President Biden's National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NAIC).
Smith's Research & Gradings believes the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 bps at its June meeting.
Hawkins Delafield & Wood, New York City's legendary municipal law firm, published a "Hawkins Advisory" that reviews the Financial Data Transparency Act of 2022 (FDTA), which was signed into law on December 23, 2022; developments in enforcement actions regarding limited offerings; and the status of certain pending rulemaking by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB).
Kevin Holloran, Senior Director of Public Sector Healthcare/Hospitals at Fitch Ratings, said, "More severe-than-expected macro headwinds have prompted Fitch Ratings to revise its sector outlook for U.S. not-for-profit hospitals and health systems to ‘deteriorating."
Over the past 50 years, male labor force participation in the United States has fallen over 10 percentage points, from 80 percent in January 1970 to 69 percent in January 2020.
While the federal government appears unlikely to lower the federal gas tax, many states have set about finding ways to provide relief at the pump.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
