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Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
