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We are cautiously optimistic about markets and the US economy for 2026, but there are plenty of downside risk factors. While many investors are focused on AI, the US intervention in Venezuela signaled that geopolitical risk is a major factor for the year ahead. We are witnessing a major shift to power politics, which has implications for markets. You can expect to see efforts to uphold a rules-based international system, which makes economic statecraft a part , both local and national, of our forecast for 2026.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting dominates the week. The idea of a 25-bps interest rate cut is baked into the picture, though what is said afterwards is important in setting the tone for 2026.
The US government shutdown is now the longest in US history (past 40 days); private sector economic data shows softening labor markets; consumer sentiment is shaky; and “soft landing” talk has resurfaced.
Last week concluded with an abrupt escalation of the US-China trade war, threatening to derail upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi in Seoul, South Korea scheduled for the end of the month.
Democrats and Republicans once again are squared off against each other over whether to keep the federal government funded. Sadly, we have been here before; eventually one side caves and life goes on until the next funding crisis.
The Fed is cutting interest rates, stocks are at record highs, tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the US Treasury, and adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback as buyers seek lower rates. What could go wrong?
Congratulations to the analysts elected to receive the great and important honor of belonging to Smith's All-Star Analysts Team in 2020. Even if awards and accolades are presented by presidents and kings, none will be more important than the 2020 All-Star Municipal Analyst Award.
On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."
If you want to get a feel for municipal transportation credit, watch REM's video "Can't Get There From Here" which was filmed at a drive-in movie theater in Georgia in 2010. It's available on YouTube and the video is, well, "poor quality."
The rollercoaster ride that is the U.S. economy is likely to continue through into the first half of 2021.
Targeted Infrastructure programs will be one of the featured revitalization tools used for stimulating growth in the US economy post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many observers have anticipated massive large-scale infrastructure programs, but that may not be viable at this time, given the financial capabilities of many state and local governments.
Economic development related to transportation in and around Washington, D.C. underscores the tremendous limitations and challenges facing the area.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
