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Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
Fitch Ratings assigned a 'BBB+' rating to the New York City Industrial Development Agency's (NYC IDA) $923 million PILOT Revenue Refunding Bonds,Series 2020, Yankee Stadium Project. Fitch has also affirmed the 'BBB+' rating on the Series 2006 and 2009 bonds, as well as the NYCIDA's Series 2006 and 2009 Rental Revenue Bonds, issued on behalf of Yankee Stadium LLC (StadCo). The Rating Outlook is Stable. The transaction will refund $863 million Series 2006 and 2009 bonds, generating more than $200 million in present value savings.
S&P Global Ratings placed 98 ratings on most U.S. airports and airport-related obligations on CreditWatch with negative implications, affecting 63 different obligors. This week, SRG had a chance to talk with Kurt E. Forsgren, S&P Global transportation sector leader and senior credit analyst on Airports.
A Blue Ribbon Committee of Housing Policy leaders released a COVID-19 Crisis report on August 7 that estimates 30 to 40 million Americans may face eviction over the next several months.
Puerto Rico's elections were a mess. On Sunday, August 9, Puerto Rico was forced to partially suspend voting for primaries marred by a lack of ballots, as officials called on the president of the Commonwealth's elections commissioner Juan Ernesto Davila to resign. The primaries for voting centers that had not received ballots by early Sunday afternoon were expected to be rescheduled, while voting would continue elsewhere, the commission said.
Aristotle wrote in "Politics" that the purpose of political community is not living, but living well. One measure of how well a political community is living is the quality of the opportunity for education. Clearly, the COVID-19 crisis has disrupted the traditional classroom learning model. America's school system failed the teachers, students and parents.
On August 4th the port of Beirut was the scene of a horrific explosion, which killed more than 150 people, injured 6,000 and left some 300,000 homeless. The damages are estimated to be in excess of $15 billion. The city’s hospitals, already struggling due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were damaged by the blast and swamped with injured. On top of already raging economic and political crises, the explosion now raises the question of food security. Prior to the explosion, 80 percent of Lebanon’s imports passed through Beirut’s port. Without a functioning port in Beirut, the country now relies on a handful of secondary ports, chief among them being Tripoli in the north, to import food and to export its products.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
