Below you will find selected samples of Past and Current articles from our publications. To download or read the the full publication please Subscribe.
We are cautiously optimistic about markets and the US economy for 2026, but there are plenty of downside risk factors. While many investors are focused on AI, the US intervention in Venezuela signaled that geopolitical risk is a major factor for the year ahead. We are witnessing a major shift to power politics, which has implications for markets. You can expect to see efforts to uphold a rules-based international system, which makes economic statecraft a part , both local and national, of our forecast for 2026.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting dominates the week. The idea of a 25-bps interest rate cut is baked into the picture, though what is said afterwards is important in setting the tone for 2026.
The US government shutdown is now the longest in US history (past 40 days); private sector economic data shows softening labor markets; consumer sentiment is shaky; and “soft landing” talk has resurfaced.
Last week concluded with an abrupt escalation of the US-China trade war, threatening to derail upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi in Seoul, South Korea scheduled for the end of the month.
Democrats and Republicans once again are squared off against each other over whether to keep the federal government funded. Sadly, we have been here before; eventually one side caves and life goes on until the next funding crisis.
The Fed is cutting interest rates, stocks are at record highs, tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the US Treasury, and adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback as buyers seek lower rates. What could go wrong?
In a survey of readers, Smith's Research & Gradings asked about people who have done a great job during this Coronavirus crisis. Robin Prunty, Managing Director, Head of Analytics and Research at S&P Global Ratings came up a number of times, prompting our conversation with her.
One of the great lessons from the Puerto Rico bankruptcy was never to draw to an inside straight — in other words, state and local government politicians need to play the hand that is dealt.
In truth, high-tax blue states are net "receivers" of federal funds, New York foremost among them, according to Matthew Schoenfeld, a Chicago-based municipal bond portfolio manager. He gored one of the sacred cows of New Yorkers (and many municipal analysts). What's more, Mr. Schoenfeld did it publicly — in the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Page on July 22, 2020. Governor Andrew Cuomo, (D.NY) has repeatedly flouted a list of "donor states" topped by New York, which "gives" $29 bln. a year more than it "got" from 2015 through 2018. The source of the Governor's claim is the Rockefeller Institute's "Giving or Getting" which was published in 2017.
A COVID-19 pandemic, rising business bankruptcies, pressure on government finances, a global economic meltdown and an increasingly tenser relationship with China – what else could go wrong for Japan? Apparently, there is one more thing: Fitch has changed its outlook for Japan’s “A” sovereign rating from stable to negative. Moody’s rates Japan “A1” (stable) and S&P gives Japan a sovereign rating at “A+” (stable). We think it is possible to see Moody’s and S&P follow with negative outlooks later in the year. Smith’s shares many of the same concerns with Fitch about Japan’s credit picture and has a negative outlook. Moreover, Japan’s deteriorating creditworthiness is significant in that the Asia-Pacific country is the world’s third largest economy, a leading exporter and staunch U.S. ally. The deeper Japan sinks, the messier Asia’s geopolitical landscape becomes.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which began construction in 2011, is nearing completion, including the filling of a reservoir necessary to provide water flow for an electric power project. This development provides Ethiopia major leverage over the countries downriver and could boost Addis Ababa’s power throughout Africa. The GERD also raises the delicate long-term issue of food security for Egypt and Sudan, two countries with large and growing populations which have long histories of drought, famine and flooding.
Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and Tesla founder Elon Musk both agree when it comes to California's $77 billion high-speed rail project—the project is going to jump the tracks.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
