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Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
While Wall Street continues to hope for cuts in the near term, we are taking our cue from Chairman Powell’s May 14th comment that the U.S. central bank will have to be “patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
ASCE released its economic report on “Bridging the Gap.” The report describes the impact that the federal investment has had on the US Infrastructure needs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).
The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
