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We are cautiously optimistic about markets and the US economy for 2026, but there are plenty of downside risk factors. While many investors are focused on AI, the US intervention in Venezuela signaled that geopolitical risk is a major factor for the year ahead. We are witnessing a major shift to power politics, which has implications for markets. You can expect to see efforts to uphold a rules-based international system, which makes economic statecraft a part , both local and national, of our forecast for 2026.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting dominates the week. The idea of a 25-bps interest rate cut is baked into the picture, though what is said afterwards is important in setting the tone for 2026.
The US government shutdown is now the longest in US history (past 40 days); private sector economic data shows softening labor markets; consumer sentiment is shaky; and “soft landing” talk has resurfaced.
Last week concluded with an abrupt escalation of the US-China trade war, threatening to derail upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi in Seoul, South Korea scheduled for the end of the month.
Democrats and Republicans once again are squared off against each other over whether to keep the federal government funded. Sadly, we have been here before; eventually one side caves and life goes on until the next funding crisis.
The Fed is cutting interest rates, stocks are at record highs, tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the US Treasury, and adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback as buyers seek lower rates. What could go wrong?
Grant Whitaker, President and CEO of the Utah Housing Corporation (UHC) will retire in April, after more than 40 years.
Smith's is issuing an Event Risk for Solar Flares (+1) The Solar Cycle 25 reached its lowest level in 2020 and it has started climbing higher in 2021. Forecasts predict the Solar 25 Cycle will peak in 2025.
Despite positive polling, the Biden Administration's first major piece of legislation was successful because enough Democratic senators agreed to tow the party line. But the process did not occur as smoothly as some may have believed. We think that going forward, passing and implementing future major legislation will require a significant amount of political horse-trading. Even that will not assure victory, because each side will be seeking to satisfy their constituents, especially with the 2022 mid-terms looming in the background.
At press time, the US EPA issued two actions to protect public health from "Forever Chemicals" in the nation's drinking water. The topic is featured in the movie Dark Waters, a 2019 American legal thriller that dramatizes Robert Bilott's case against DuPont after they contaminated a town in West Virginia with unregulated chemicals (PFAS) in the production of Teflon. The EPA's announcement followed a timely MAGNY discussion on the roughly 50,000 U.S. public water systems and the challenges of funding and replacing the aging infrastructure.
The National Emergency has been extended according to a letter from President Joe Biden to The Congress of the United States.
American Dream bondholders went on real roller coaster ride that rivals the mall's Nickelodeon Universe Theme park.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
