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This week’s big event is the Fed’s September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. We expect, like most analysts, to see a 25-bps rate cut. Finally! Labor market weakness is too significant to be ignored. We also expect that the Fed meeting will indicate two more cuts this year and leave the door open to more in 2026.
Inflation numbers rose by 0.4% month-o-month for August and 2.9% y-o-y, according to the latest CPI report.
Mr. Market will have plenty to consider during the upcoming week.
The ASCE's report card for Utah assigns a cumulative grade of 'C+' to Utah's infrastructure, maintaining the same grade as the previous report card in 2020. This grade is notable as Utah is one of only three states to achieve a 'C+', the highest grade ASCE has ever assigned to a state's infrastructure.
One of the cornerstones of the Trump administration is the revival of the manufacturing sector. This is to be accomplished through a combination of economic policy measures, promotion of returning manufacturing to the US or reshoring, and, when perceived necessary, bullying companies, often with the threat of tariffs as well as a steady stream of presidential badgering on social media.
At the May 8th Federal Reserve FOMC meeting interest rates were left at 4.25%-4.50%. This was the third consecutive time the US central bank has held rates steady.
Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
