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Smith's Chief Economist Expects Fed to Hike Rates

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Smith's Chief Economist Expects Fed to Hike Rates

We believe the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 bps at its June meeting. Inflation remains well above the central bank's target (2%), real GDP growth is for Q2 is tracking close to 3.0%, unemployment remains low, and corporate earnings and services PMI remains comfortably above what are considered recessionary levels. The equity market has been wrong on the Fed pause through most 2023 and is likely to be wrong in June. — Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.

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Treasury Secretary to Close COVID-19 Lending Facilities

On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."

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Jobs Number May Indicate Covid Economy is Over

Wow! The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate in the 4.0% area. Also impressive is that there were large upward revisions from previous months. We say 'wow' because there was such negative sentiment prior to the release of the jobs number.

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A Farewell to Froehlich

Smith's Cadre of Affordable Housing Finance is sad to announce the passing of Richard Froehlich, First Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the New York City Housing Development Corporation.

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