Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).

Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.

Smith's Research & Gradings believes the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 bps at its June meeting.

While the federal government appears unlikely to lower the federal gas tax, many states have set about finding ways to provide relief at the pump.

Over the past 50 years, male labor force participation in the United States has fallen over 10 percentage points, from 80 percent in January 1970 to 69 percent in January 2020.

Wow! The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate in the 4.0% area. Also impressive is that there were large upward revisions from previous months. We say 'wow' because there was such negative sentiment prior to the release of the jobs number.

While we were sleeping late Thursday night, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA) exactly as the U.S. Senate did in August. Now, it is going to the President for signature.

Smith's Newport Municipal Bond Conference featured a round table discussion with three of the nation's leading municipal strategists. The conversation was witty and crosstalk while somewhat sarcastic, was always respectful.

The $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework, which has garnered the support of the Biden Administration, calls for billions in funding for traditional infrastructure.

The US Treasury launched the Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds, established by the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, to provide $350 billion in emergency funding for state, local, territorial, and Tribal governments.

S&P Global Public Finance launched the 2021 Credit Calendar with its Outlook for State and Local Governments. From a credit standpoint, state and local governments have navigated and led through significant challenges over time, and S&P expects this to continue.

2020 was a year unlike any other due to the devastating impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, with no infrastructure asset being hit harder than demand-based transportation, according to Fitch on their 2021 US Transportation Outlook webinar.

On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."

If you want to get a feel for municipal transportation credit, watch REM's video "Can't Get There From Here" which was filmed at a drive-in movie theater in Georgia in 2010. It's available on YouTube and the video is, well, "poor quality."

Targeted Infrastructure programs will be one of the featured revitalization tools used for stimulating growth in the US economy post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many observers have anticipated massive large-scale infrastructure programs, but that may not be viable at this time, given the financial capabilities of many state and local governments.

The rollercoaster ride that is the U.S. economy is likely to continue through into the first half of 2021.

A Blue Ribbon Committee of Housing Policy leaders released a COVID-19 Crisis report on August 7 that estimates 30 to 40 million Americans may face eviction over the next several months.

One of the great lessons from the Puerto Rico bankruptcy was never to draw to an inside straight — in other words, state and local government politicians need to play the hand that is dealt.