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Smith's Research & Gradings
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November 23, 2020

Smith's Research & Gradings

Treasury Secretary to Close COVID-19 Lending Facilities

Treasury Secretary to Close COVID-19 Lending Facilities

On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."

Morgan Stanley & Co.'s top team of strategists noted the announcement was immediately met with a rare statement from the Fed, and was followed on Friday by a letter from Chair Powell responding to Secretary Mnuchin and indicating that the Fed would "work out arrangements...for returning the unused portions of the funds allocated to the CARES Act facilities in connection with their year end termination."

Christopher White, municipal strategist at Jefferies, observed the technical strength in the municipal market persists, characterized by very strong demand driven by coupon reinvestment proceeds and healthy fund inflows, a dearth of supply and general optimism on recent vaccine headlines from Pfizer and Moderna.  
Mr. White added, "Municipal market sentiment appeared undeterred following Thursday's news from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that the Fed's emergency lending facilities, including the Municipal Liquidity Facility, will not be extended beyond the 12/31/20 expiration or by the recent COVID-19 resurgence and lockdown headlines.

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California Confronts the Gap

The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.

US Economy – Growth on Track for Now…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).

Outlook Positive

SpaceX blasts through a major milestone with first manned mission

This joint public/private venture between NASA and SpaceX begins a new chapter in space exploration. How will this effect future commercial demands in space?

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