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The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.
Terence M. Smith, CEO, Smith's Research & Gradings has agreed to join President Biden's National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NAIC).
Can Artificial intelligence deliver for municipal bond analysts? The answer is a resounding yes!
Last week concluded with an abrupt escalation of the US-China trade war, threatening to derail upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi in Seoul, South Korea scheduled for the end of the month.
Democrats and Republicans once again are squared off against each other over whether to keep the federal government funded. Sadly, we have been here before; eventually one side caves and life goes on until the next funding crisis.
The Fed is cutting interest rates, stocks are at record highs, tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the US Treasury, and adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback as buyers seek lower rates. What could go wrong?
This week’s big event is the Fed’s September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. We expect, like most analysts, to see a 25-bps rate cut. Finally! Labor market weakness is too significant to be ignored. We also expect that the Fed meeting will indicate two more cuts this year and leave the door open to more in 2026.
Inflation numbers rose by 0.4% month-o-month for August and 2.9% y-o-y, according to the latest CPI report.
Mr. Market will have plenty to consider during the upcoming week.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
