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Last week was tumultuous, considering the Supreme Court’s decision against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a lower-than-expected Q4 real GDP number (coming in at 1.4% missing a 2.8% consensus), and with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, coming in higher-than-expected at 3.0%. This sets the stage for a new week of further uncertainty built around tariff fall-out, economic data, geopolitics (Iran), and earnings. Economic policy uncertainty looms largest, leaving markets volatile.
2026 continues to be a roller coaster ride for investors. Last week’s performance saw a memorable sell-off in AI-related assets due to concerns over the massive spending being thrown at its implementation. This cascaded into other more risky segments such as cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. At the end of the week came a massive rally, with the Dow hitting a historic milestone – closing above 50,000 for the first time.
This week is likely to be dominated by earnings (Alphabet, Amazon and Palantir), a further look into how AI is playing out on company balance sheets, more economic data releases, and the US partial government shutdown (which we expect to be short-lived).
For this week the dominant events are earnings (led by tech names), the Fed meeting (expect no change in rates), and the possibility of a new US government shutdown. Although the geopolitical fracas over Greenland has subsided for now, investors are wary of risk and are buying gold and other precious metals as a safe harbor trade.
Geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market volatility rule for now, which will be balanced by what is expected to be another strong earnings season and continued signs of economic expansion.
Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, which could lead to social turmoil, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted, which could lead to social turmoil. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: It is difficult to escape coronavirus. Between the major cable networks running scoreboards numbering the infected and dead and the barrage of stories on social media, the virus dominates the news flow. The only other major story beyond coronavirus is the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is causing a considerable amount of discomfort in the U.S. and Canadian oil patches. The virus and the oil price war are a one-two punch to the global economy and are reshaping the world. As 2020 plays out, our approach to cross-border economic relations, travel, urban planning, healthcare and the structure of daily life is changing. The bottom line is that coronavirus is the black swan that most of us failed to see.
David Hitchcock participated in S&P Global Ratings' Webinar on State Ratings and quietly retired at the end of the day. It was a silent send-off for a great analyst. Your correspondent checked in with him the very next day.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
