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We are cautiously optimistic about markets and the US economy for 2026, but there are plenty of downside risk factors. While many investors are focused on AI, the US intervention in Venezuela signaled that geopolitical risk is a major factor for the year ahead. We are witnessing a major shift to power politics, which has implications for markets. You can expect to see efforts to uphold a rules-based international system, which makes economic statecraft a part , both local and national, of our forecast for 2026.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting dominates the week. The idea of a 25-bps interest rate cut is baked into the picture, though what is said afterwards is important in setting the tone for 2026.
The US government shutdown is now the longest in US history (past 40 days); private sector economic data shows softening labor markets; consumer sentiment is shaky; and “soft landing” talk has resurfaced.
Last week concluded with an abrupt escalation of the US-China trade war, threatening to derail upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi in Seoul, South Korea scheduled for the end of the month.
Democrats and Republicans once again are squared off against each other over whether to keep the federal government funded. Sadly, we have been here before; eventually one side caves and life goes on until the next funding crisis.
The Fed is cutting interest rates, stocks are at record highs, tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the US Treasury, and adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback as buyers seek lower rates. What could go wrong?
Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, which could lead to social turmoil, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted, which could lead to social turmoil. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: It is difficult to escape coronavirus. Between the major cable networks running scoreboards numbering the infected and dead and the barrage of stories on social media, the virus dominates the news flow. The only other major story beyond coronavirus is the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is causing a considerable amount of discomfort in the U.S. and Canadian oil patches. The virus and the oil price war are a one-two punch to the global economy and are reshaping the world. As 2020 plays out, our approach to cross-border economic relations, travel, urban planning, healthcare and the structure of daily life is changing. The bottom line is that coronavirus is the black swan that most of us failed to see.
David Hitchcock participated in S&P Global Ratings' Webinar on State Ratings and quietly retired at the end of the day. It was a silent send-off for a great analyst. Your correspondent checked in with him the very next day.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
