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Smith's Research & Gradings
Volume: 
XXIX
Issue: 
6
Author: 
March 31, 2021

Smith's Research & Gradings

Here Comes the Sun

Here Comes the Sun

Smith's is issuing an Event Risk for Solar Flares (+1) The Solar Cycle 25 reached its lowest level in 2020 and it has started climbing higher in 2021. Forecasts predict the Solar 25 Cycle will peak in 2025.

Research now underway predicts the Sun's activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle forecasts it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

On August 31, 2012 a long filament of solar material that had been hovering in the sun's atmosphere, the corona, erupted out into space. This coronal mass ejection — an immense cloud of magnetized particles — traveled at over 900 miles per second. The ability to forecast these kinds of events on the Sun is increasingly important as NASA prepares to send humans to the Moon under the Artemis program.

Sunspots are regions on the Sun with magnetic fields thousands of times stronger than the Earth's. Fewer of them at the point of maximum solar activity means fewer dangerous blasts of radiation.

What prompts Smith's Event Risk Alert is the combination of increasing solar activity, the weakness of America's electric transmission system (aka the grid) and the spread of residential/commercial electronics (phones/computers,etc).  

The obvious solution is to ground the electric towers, sub-stations, and power transformers. However, copper wire is the preferred method of grounding electric grids, which is often stolen from these facilities and sold as a commodity.

Take notice

Stay on top of the latest global news that can impact your investment strategy.

Jobs Number May Indicate Covid Economy is Over

Wow! The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate in the 4.0% area. Also impressive is that there were large upward revisions from previous months. We say 'wow' because there was such negative sentiment prior to the release of the jobs number.

California Confronts the Gap

The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.

Manufacturing, Reshoring and Big Challenges

One of the cornerstones of the Trump administration is the revival of the manufacturing sector. This is to be accomplished through a combination of economic policy measures, promotion of returning manufacturing to the US or reshoring, and, when perceived necessary, bullying companies, often with the threat of tariffs as well as a steady stream of presidential badgering on social media.

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